{"id":30840,"date":"2025-03-08T21:28:05","date_gmt":"2025-03-08T21:28:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.quantfury.io\/?page_id=30840"},"modified":"2025-03-26T19:36:13","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T19:36:13","slug":"approche","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/staging.quantfury.io\/french\/approche\/","title":{"rendered":"Approche"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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\n Approche\n <\/h1>\n \n
\n Nous mettons la science des donn\u00e9es et l\u2019intelligence artificielle au service de l\u2019humanit\u00e9 pour atteindre l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance financi\u00e8re.\n <\/div>\n \n \n
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Le monde de la finance repose sur des \u00e9l\u00e9ments concrets : des informations factuelles telles que les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques, les ratios prix\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice, les actualit\u00e9s des entreprises et leurs r\u00e9sultats financiers. Des \u00e9v\u00e9nements se produisent, et les participants du march\u00e9 r\u00e9agissent. C\u2019est l\u00e0 que la psychologie de masse entre en jeu, ajoutant une complexit\u00e9 \u00e0 ce qui serait autrement une formule pr\u00e9visible.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u2019approche de Quantfury repose sur trois th\u00e9ories fondamentales du march\u00e9 qui r\u00e9gissent les march\u00e9s d\u2019un point de vue social, math\u00e9matique et \u00e9conomique. Bien que les march\u00e9s puissent se comporter de mani\u00e8re impr\u00e9visible, ces principes restent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement valables. Bien s\u00fbr, il n\u2019existe aucune garantie de succ\u00e8s, mais en les adoptant, on peut avoir une meilleure chance de r\u00e9ussir que d\u2019autres.<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Th\u00e9orie des Nombres Al\u00e9atoires<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/h2>\n

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La th\u00e9orie des nombres al\u00e9atoires couvre le domaine des math\u00e9matiques et des probabilit\u00e9s. Elle remonte \u00e0 1863 et postule que les prix des actions ne suivent aucune tendance discernable. Elle contredit ainsi toute personne pensant pouvoir battre le march\u00e9 gr\u00e2ce aux graphiques et \u00e0 l\u2019analyse technique.<\/span><\/p>\n

C’est important, car toute personne qui effectue des transactions de mani\u00e8re al\u00e9atoire sur le long terme finira par perdre. Imaginez ceci : si quelqu\u2019un effectuait des transactions de mani\u00e8re r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9e et totalement al\u00e9atoire en se basant sur un lancer de pi\u00e8ce, il gagnerait 50 % du temps et perdrait 50 % du temps. Cependant, il y a un co\u00fbt pour chaque lancer de pi\u00e8ce. Les commissions, l\u2019\u00e9cart entre les prix d\u2019achat et de vente, ainsi que d\u2019autres frais divers, grignoteraient progressivement les gains et les pertes, faisant basculer l\u2019\u00e9quilibre de 50 % exactement vers un chiffre qui refl\u00e8te le co\u00fbt de chaque transaction.<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n

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Th\u00e9orie des Perspectives<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/h2>\n

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Les \u00e9motions humaines et les r\u00e9actions aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements introduisent une part d\u2019al\u00e9atoire comportemental dans le trading et l\u2019investissement. La th\u00e9orie des perspectives a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e en 1979 par les psychologues isra\u00e9liens Amos Tversky et Daniel Kahneman, ce dernier ayant re\u00e7u le prix Nobel des sciences \u00e9conomiques en 2002. Cette th\u00e9orie repose sur une observation simple : perdre 100 $ procure une sensation bien plus d\u00e9sagr\u00e9able que celle ressentie en gagnant 100 $. En d\u2019autres termes, les individus agissent davantage sous le coup des \u00e9motions que de la rationalit\u00e9, ce qui engendre des attentes irr\u00e9alistes et des r\u00e9actions disproportionn\u00e9es aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements, souvent en contradiction avec leur propre int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9conomique.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c0 grande \u00e9chelle, le comportement des traders peut \u00eatre observ\u00e9 collectivement, comme l\u2019explore le concept de psychohistoire, une science fictive d\u00e9crite par l\u2019\u00e9crivain de science-fiction Isaac Asimov dans sa s\u00e9rie Fondation.<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n

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Th\u00e9orie de l’Efficience des March\u00e9s<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/h2>\n

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La th\u00e9orie de l’efficience des march\u00e9s est largement attribu\u00e9e aux travaux de l\u2019\u00e9conomiste am\u00e9ricain Eugene Fama, laur\u00e9at du prix Nobel des sciences \u00e9conomiques en 2013. Son postulat central est que les prix des actions int\u00e8grent en permanence toutes les informations disponibles, rendant ainsi extr\u00eamement difficile la possibilit\u00e9 de surperformer le march\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re constante.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dans un monde o\u00f9 la communication est instantan\u00e9e et o\u00f9 des r\u00e8gles strictes interdisent la divulgation d\u2019informations non publiques et le d\u00e9lit d\u2019initi\u00e9, cela signifie qu\u2019il est pratiquement impossible de \u00ab battre \u00bb ou d\u2019anticiper le march\u00e9. Bien que certains investisseurs c\u00e9l\u00e8bres, comme Warren Buffett, aient r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 surperformer le march\u00e9 sur de longues p\u00e9riodes, il est peu probable que vous puissiez en faire de m\u00eame. Les r\u00e9glementations adopt\u00e9es depuis les d\u00e9buts de Buffett dans les ann\u00e9es 1950, ainsi que les avanc\u00e9es technologiques, n\u2019ont fait que rendre les march\u00e9s plus transparents et plus efficients.<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n

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<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-30840","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nApproche | Quantfury<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nous mettons la science des donn\u00e9es et l\u2019intelligence artificielle au service de l\u2019humanit\u00e9 pour atteindre l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance financi\u00e8re.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Approche | Quantfury\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nous mettons la science des 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